The duration of the school-to-work transition in Italy and in other European countries: a flexible baseline hazard interpretation

Purpose: The Italian school-to-work transition (STWT) is astonishingly slow and long in comparison to the other EU countries. We analyze its determinants comparing the Italian case with Austria, Poland and the UK. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis is based on a Cox survival model with proportional hazard. The smoothed hazard estimates allow us to identify the nonlinear path of the hazard function. Findings: The authors reckon that the actual length of the transition to a stable job is around 30 months in Italy. Conversely, it is less than one year in the other countries. Women are particularly penalized, despite being on average more educated than men. Tertiary or vocational education at high secondary school strongly increases the hazard rate to a regular job. The smoothed hazard estimates suggest positive duration dependence at the beginning of the transition and slightly negative thereafter. Practical implications: Stimulating economic growth and investing in education and training are important pre-conditions for shortening the transition. Originality/value: Despite the duration of the STWT is one of the most important indicators to measure the efficiency of the STWT, it is not easy to measure. The authors build on their previous research work on this topic, but relaxing the assumption of a monotonic hazard rate and using the flexible baseline hazard approach to test for the existence of nonlinear duration dependence. Furthermore, they extend the analysis by including student-workers who attended a vocational path of education, in order to detect its effectiveness in allowing young people finding a job sooner

Cartografía de severidad de incendios forestales a partir de la combinación del modelo de mezclas espectrales y la clasificación basada en objetos

This study shows an accurate and fast methodology in order to evaluate fire severity classes of large forest fires. A single Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper multispectral image was utilized in this study with the aim of mapping fire severity classes (high, moderate and low) using a combined-approach based in an spectral mixing model and object-based image analysis. A large wildfire in the Northwest of Spain is used to test the model. Fraction images obtained by Landsat unmixing were used as input data in the object-based image analysis. A multilevel segmentation and a classification were carried out by using membership functions. This method was compared with other simplest ones in order to evaluate the suitability to distinguish between the three fire severity classes above mentioned. McNemar’s test was used to evaluate the statistical significance of the difference between approaches tested in this study. The combined approach achieved the highest accuracy reaching 97.32% and kappa index of agreement of 95.96% and improving accuracy of individual classes.Este estudio presenta una metodología rápida y precisa para la evaluación de los niveles de severidad que afectan a grandes incendios forestales. El trabajo combina un modelo de mezclas espectrales y un análisis de imágenes basado en objetos con el objetivo de cartografiar distintos niveles de severidad (alto, moderado y bajo) empleando una imagen multiespectral Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper. Este modelo es testado en un gran incendio forestal ocurrido en el noroeste de España. Las imágenes fracción obtenidas tras aplicar el modelo de mezclas a la imagen Landsat fueron utilizadas como datos de entrada en el análisis basado en objetos. En este se llevó a cabo una segmentación multinivel y una posterior clasificación usando funciones de pertenencia. Esta metodología fue comparada con otras más simples con el fin de evaluar su conveniencia a al hora de distinguir entre los tres niveles de severidad anteriormente mencionados. El test de McNemar fue empleado para evaluar la significancia estadística de la diferencia entre los métodos testados en el estudio. El método combinado alcanzó la más alta precisión con un 97,32% y un índice Kappa del 95,96%, además de mejorar la precisión de los niveles individualmente

Evidence for the Gompertz Curve in the Income Distribution of Brazil 1978-2005

This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the personal income distribution in Brazil. Yearly samples available from 1978 to 2005 were studied and evidence was found that the complementary cumulative distribution of personal income for 99% of the economically less favorable population is well represented by a Gompertz curve of the form $G(x)=\exp [\exp (A-Bx)]$, where $x$ is the normalized individual income. The complementary cumulative distribution of the remaining 1% richest part of the population is well represented by a Pareto power law distribution $P(x)= \beta x^{-\alpha}$. This result means that similarly to other countries, Brazil's income distribution is characterized by a well defined two class system. The parameters $A$, $B$, $\alpha$, $\beta$ were determined by a mixture of boundary conditions, normalization and fitting methods for every year in the time span of this study. Since the Gompertz curve is characteristic of growth models, its presence here suggests that these patterns in income distribution could be a consequence of the growth dynamics of the underlying economic system. In addition, we found out that the percentage share of both the Gompertzian and Paretian components relative to the total income shows an approximate cycling pattern with periods of about 4 years and whose maximum and minimum peaks in each component alternate at about every 2 years. This finding suggests that the growth dynamics of Brazil's economic system might possibly follow a Goodwin-type class model dynamics based on the application of the Lotka-Volterra equation to economic growth and cycle.Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures, 4 tables. LaTeX. Accepted for publication in "The European Physical Journal B

The clinical relevance of oliguria in the critically ill patient : Analysis of a large observational database

Funding Information: Marc Leone reports receiving consulting fees from Amomed and Aguettant; lecture fees from MSD, Pfizer, Octapharma, 3 M, Aspen, Orion; travel support from LFB; and grant support from PHRC IR and his institution. JLV is the Editor-in-Chief of Critical Care. The other authors declare that they have no relevant financial interests. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: Urine output is widely used as one of the criteria for the diagnosis and staging of acute renal failure, but few studies have specifically assessed the role of oliguria as a marker of acute renal failure or outcomes in general intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Using a large multinational database, we therefore evaluated the occurrence of oliguria (defined as a urine output 16 years) patients in the ICON audit who had a urine output measurement on the day of admission were included. To investigate the association between oliguria and mortality, we used a multilevel analysis. Results: Of the 8292 patients included, 2050 (24.7%) were oliguric during the first 24 h of admission. Patients with oliguria on admission who had at least one additional 24-h urine output recorded during their ICU stay (n = 1349) were divided into three groups: transient - oliguria resolved within 48 h after the admission day (n = 390 [28.9%]), prolonged - oliguria resolved > 48 h after the admission day (n = 141 [10.5%]), and permanent - oliguria persisting for the whole ICU stay or again present at the end of the ICU stay (n = 818 [60.6%]). ICU and hospital mortality rates were higher in patients with oliguria than in those without, except for patients with transient oliguria who had significantly lower mortality rates than non-oliguric patients. In multilevel analysis, the need for RRT was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (OR = 1.51 [95% CI 1.19-1.91], p = 0.001), but the presence of oliguria on admission was not (OR = 1.14 [95% CI 0.97-1.34], p = 0.103). Conclusions: Oliguria is common in ICU patients and may have a relatively benign nature if only transient. The duration of oliguria and need for RRT are associated with worse outcome.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Above-ground carbon stocks, species diversity and fire dynamics in the Bateke Plateau

Savannas are heterogeneous systems characterised by a high spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem structure. Savannas dominate the tropics, with important ecological functions, and play a prominent role in the global carbon cycle, in particular responsible for much of its inter-annual variability. They are shaped by resource availability, soil characteristics and disturbance events, particularly fire. Understanding and predicting the demographic structure and woody cover of savannas remains a challenge, as it is currently poorly understood due to the complex interactions and processes that determine them. A predictive understanding of savanna ecosystems is critical in the context of land use management and global change. Fire is an essential ecological disturbance in savannas, and forest-savanna mosaics are maintained by fire-mediated positive feedbacks. Over half of the world’s savannas are found in Africa, and over a quarter Africa’s surface burns every year, with fires occurring principally in the savanna biome. These have strong environmental and social impacts. Most fires in Africa are anthropogenic and occur during the late dry season, but their dynamics and effects remain understudied. The main objective of this research is to understand the floristic composition, carbon storage, woody cover and fire regime of the mesic savannas of the Bateke Plateau. The Bateke Plateau is savanna-forest mosaic ecosystem, situated mainly in the Republic of Congo, with sandy Kalahari soils and enough precipitation for potential forest establishment (1600 mm/yr). Despite occupying 89,800 km2, its ecology and ecosystem functions are poorly understood. This study combines two approaches: firstly experimental, setting up long term field experiments where the fire regime is manipulated, and then observational, using remote sensing to estimate the carbon storage and study the past history of the fire regime in the region. I established four large (25 ha) plots at two savanna sites, measured their carbon stocks, spatial structure and floristic composition, and applied different annual fire treatments (early and late dry season burns). These treatments were applied annually during 3 years (2015, 2016 and 2017), and the plots were re-measured every year to estimate tree demographic rates and the identification of the key processes that impact them, including fire and competition. Field data were combined with satellite radar data from ALOS PALSAR, and the fire products of the MODIS satellites, to estimate carbon stocks and fire regimes for the entire Bateke Plateau. I also analyse the underlying biophysical and anthropogenic processes that influence the patterns in Above-Ground Woody Biomass (AGWB) and their spatial variability in the Bateke landscape. The total plant carbon stocks (above-ground and below-ground) were low, averaging only 6.5 ± 0.3 MgC/ha, with grass representing over half the biomass. Soil organic matter dominate the ecosystem carbon stocks, with 16.7 ± 0.9 Mg/ha found in the top 20 cm alone. We identified 49 plant species (4 trees, 13 shrubs, 4 sedges, 17 forbs and 11 grass species), with a tree hyperdominance of Hymenocardia acida, and a richer herbaceous species composition. These savannas showed evidence of tree clustering, and also indications of tree-tree competition. Trees had low growth rates (averaging 1.21 mm/yr), and mortality was relatively low (3.24 %/yr) across all plots. The experiment showed that late dry season fires significantly reduced tree growth compared to early dry season fires, but also reduced stem mortality rates. Results show that these mesic savannas had very low tree biomass, with tree cover held far below its climate potential closed-canopy maximum, likely due to nutrient poor sandy soils and frequent fires. Results from the remote sensing analysis indicated that multiple explanatory variables had a significant effect on AGWB in the Bateke Plateau. Overall, the frequency of fire had the largest impact on AGWB (with higher fire frequency resulting in lower AGWB), with sand content the next most important explanatory variable (with more sand reducing AGWB). Fires in the Bateke are very frequent, and show high seasonality. The proportion of fires that occurred in the late dry season, though smaller predictor, was also more important than other factors (including soil carbon proportion, whether or not the savanna area was in a protected area, annual rainfall, or distance to the nearest town, river or road), with a larger proportion of late dry season fires associated with a small increase in AGWB. The results give pointers for management of the savannas of the Bateke Plateau, as well as improving our understanding of vegetation dynamics in this understudied ecosystem and help orient policy and conservation

Temporal changes in the epidemiology, management, and outcome from acute respiratory distress syndrome in European intensive care units: a comparison of two large cohorts

Background: Mortality rates for patients with ARDS remain high. We assessed temporal changes in the epidemiology and management of ARDS patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in European ICUs. We also investigated the association between ventilatory settings and outcome in these patients. Methods: This was a post hoc analysis of two cohorts of adult ICU patients admitted between May 1–15, 2002 (SOAP study, n = 3147), and May 8–18, 2012 (ICON audit, n = 4601 admitted to ICUs in the same 24 countries as the SOAP study). ARDS was defined retrospectively using the Berlin definitions. Values of tidal volume, PEEP, plateau pressure, and FiO2 corresponding to the most abnormal value of arterial PO2 were recorded prospectively every 24 h. In both studies, patients were followed for outcome until death, hospital discharge or for 60 days. Results: The frequency of ARDS requiring mechanical ventilation during the ICU stay was similar in SOAP and ICON (327[10.4%] vs. 494[10.7%], p = 0.793). The diagnosis of ARDS was established at a median of 3 (IQ: 1–7) days after admission in SOAP and 2 (1–6) days in ICON. Within 24 h of diagnosis, ARDS was mild in 244 (29.7%), moderate in 388 (47.3%), and severe in 189 (23.0%) patients. In patients with ARDS, tidal volumes were lower in the later (ICON) than in the earlier (SOAP) cohort. Plateau and driving pressures were also lower in ICON than in SOAP. ICU (134[41.1%] vs 179[36.9%]) and hospital (151[46.2%] vs 212[44.4%]) mortality rates in patients with ARDS were similar in SOAP and ICON. High plateau pressure (> 29 cmH2O) and driving pressure (> 14 cmH2O) on the first day of mechanical ventilation but not tidal volume (> 8 ml/kg predicted body weight [PBW]) were independently associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death. Conclusion: The frequency of and outcome from ARDS remained relatively stable between 2002 and 2012. Plateau pressure > 29 cmH2O and driving pressure > 14 cmH2O on the first day of mechanical ventilation but not tidal volume > 8 ml/kg PBW were independently associated with a higher risk of death. These data highlight the continued burden of ARDS and provide hypothesis-generating data for the design of future studies